Long-Term Forecast of Medicaid Enrollment and Spending in Alaska, FY2023–FY2043 PDF
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- This forecast is an update to the Long-Term Forecast of Medicaid Enrollment and Spending in
- Alaska: 2005-2025, which was released by the Alaska Department of Health and Social Services
- (DHSS), now the Department of Health, in February 2006. In this update, we develop long-term
- forecasts of enrollment in and spending on services provided by Alaska’s Medicaid program for
- fiscal year (FY) 2023 through FY2043. The projections presented in this report are based on the
- Medicaid policies, services offered, and eligibility requirements in place today. Alaska’s Medicaid
- program has changed considerably over the last decade, and it is likely to evolve and change over
- the next 20 years. Nevertheless, the long-term forecast informs decision makers about how
- Medicaid spending in Alaska will likely evolve given the structure of the program as it exists today.
- The forecast also serves as a benchmark for evaluating the impacts of initiatives introduced by the
- State of Alaska, including cost containment measures that have been or will be implemented by
- the Department of Health.
- Summary of the Long-Term Forecast of Medicaid Enrollment and
- Spending in Alaska
- Figure 1 shows actual spending on Medicaid services beginning in FY1998 (solid red line),
- projected spending from the first long-term Medicaid forecast (blue dotted line), and the current
- projection of Medicaid spending (green dashed line). Actual spending on Medicaid services in
- FY2022 was nearly $1.3 billion less than was projected in the first long-term Medicaid forecast.
- Much of this difference is attributable to cost saving efforts by the Alaska Legislature and DHSS,
- which helped “bend the cost curve” on Medicaid spending. We project total spending on Medicaid
- services will reach nearly $5.3 billion by 2043.
